UFC 226: Holloway v Ortega – Betting Guide and Stats

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Max Holloway is one of the best fighters on the planet and is willing to fight anyone, but he will most certainly earn his purse when he goes up against Brian Ortega this July at UFC 226. 

Ortega is undefeated in the octagon and a rising star who keeps on reeling off impressive performances against top level opponents. On two recent occasions, Ortega has been given the ‘performance of the night’ award, attaining it against Cub Swanson and Frankie Edgar, with Ortega felling the latter by an impressively-brutal knockout in the first round. 

It is these recent developments that have shortened the odds on an Ortega win over Holloway to an all-time low of 8/5. Holloway, meanwhile, is now only 1/2 on with William Hill, as of June 13th. These two fighters seem very well matched, which could make for a great fight, keeping it in tune with the other bouts of UFC 226. All of them have an odds-on favourite, but a mere 2/7 (for a Francis Ngannou win over Derrick Lewis) is the longest odds-on price across the four main cards.



Holloway v Ortega: Tale of the tape 

Max Holloway will go into the fight as a comfortable favourite, but that might just be because people have seen a lot more of him at UFC level, prompting bettors to utilise free bets offers from William Hill on a Holloway victory. And that may be because, while Holloway has always been able to throw a punch, he has always been open to them as well and that could make him vulnerable against Ortega. 

Both men have a fantastic striking ability, and it is a fight that could be won or lost without any groundwork at all. For that reason, backing a knockout win either way seems to be the most sensible option where possible, to ensure better odds. Holloway may have an advantage in the eyes of those that believe trends have a power of their own, with Holloway faring well against other top strikers throughout his career so far. 

In addition to his ability against other strikers, Holloway also holds a physical advantage with a leg reach of 42 inches compared to Ortega’s 39. With the two fighters only a year apart, age is not a concern for bettors, but weight could be. Holloway is at the heavier end of his category, giving Ortega greater mobility to compensate for his inferior reach.

Holloway is the favourite, but Ortega’s recent record shows why a ground battle may go in his favour.

It will be interesting if this fight ever does reach the floor. In the UFC, Ortega has just a 14% success rate with takedown attempts. This, alongside the fact that Holloway has avoided 83% of opposition takedowns, makes the prospect of Ortega taking Holloway down to the floor an unlikely one. The reverse scenario is far likelier, with Ortega defending just 58% of takedowns from an opponent. 

Though his takedown defence is far inferior to Holloway’s, Ortega still boasts impressive stats from groundwork. From his fourteen pro career wins to date, exactly half of them have come via submission, whereas only two of Holloway’s nineteen wins have come on the canvas. Thus, Ortega might try and get him to the ground, but patience will be the order of the day if he is to go down that route.

Read 711 times Last modified on Tuesday, 19 June 2018 11:23

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